The depreciation of the RMB and the overvaluation of textile exports?
In order to enhance the degree of marketization and benchmarking of the exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar, the people's Bank of China announced on its website in August 11th and decided to improve the RMB exchange rate in the middle price against the US dollar exchange rate. Since August 11, 2015, before the opening of the daily interbank foreign exchange market, market makers refer to the closing exchange rate of the inter-bank foreign exchange market on Sunday, taking into account the supply and demand of foreign exchange and the changes in the exchange rate of the international major currencies to provide intermediate price quotations to the China Foreign exchange trading center.
The latest data from the China Foreign Exchange Center showed that in August 13th, the exchange rate between the RMB and the dollar was 6.4010, falling 704 basis points from the previous day, creating a new low in recent years. The three consecutive trading days have fallen considerably, and the intermediate price of the RMB to the US dollar has fallen below the "6.4" threshold, and the market is expected to increase the value of the RMB devaluation. Because of the high international market share and high international market dependence, China's textile and garment industry is considered to be one of the most beneficial industries in the process of the depreciation of the RMB against the dollar, and some clothing home textile plates in the market are also full of red. However, how much space is there for such a good thing? How do textile and garment exporters in this area look at this trend?
Luo Xiaolin, general manager of Beijing textile import and Export Co., Ltd., used the term "mild" to describe the impact of exchange rate changes on export business in recent days. He believes that the devaluation of the RMB against US dollar 2~3 points will benefit the company's export profit, which is mainly reflected in the recent collection of orders, which will be directly reflected on the accounts. But in the long run, the customer has the bargaining power, must continue to negotiate on the next export order, the exporter will not enjoy the profit space of the exchange rate change. Since August 12th, the Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries have also been devaluating with the RMB, which has formed hedging with the competitiveness of our manufacturing industry in the international market, especially in the European and American markets, so that our competitive advantage has not been reflected from this round of depreciation. The good degree of this export is "warm". And "".
Yin Guoxin, chairman of the morning wind group Limited by Share Ltd, who has been engaged in the export business of textile and clothing for many years, thinks that the export enterprises still look at the depreciation of the RMB by the ordinary mentality, and it is good to follow the rules of the market. Because there are many factors that affect export cost, exchange rate is only one aspect. Compared with the previous years, the market fluctuation of cotton prices often reached two digits, and the fluctuation of prices and raw materials prices had a greater impact on the export and production and operation of enterprises. Similarly, any market hype is not beneficial to the healthy development of the industry. On the contrary, it is most important to do business well.
Zhou Jianxiong, President of Zhejiang textile import and Export Group Co., Ltd., said that the current RMB exchange rate against the dollar has been a little sudden, after all, this situation has not been encountered. He believes that the present devaluation is direct or short - term to export, which is mainly a good account of two types of export orders: one is an order that has already been exported and the other is a contract that has already been sold. In the long run, the moderate depreciation of the renminbi will be beneficial to improving the overall competitiveness of Chinese products. In the short term, there are still some foreign trade enterprises to make speculative purchases of long-term settlement. In addition, as China's overall bargaining power is weak, and in the face of a significant depreciation, some customers may find reasons not to perform or ask for price cuts. The impact of the future on the overall export will be the decline in unit price and the increase in export volume, and the extent of growth will depend on the demand and recovery level in the international market. "The currencies of almost all countries are greatly depreciating against the US dollar, and the purchasing power of the international market is decreasing significantly. There is still some difficulty in increasing exports." He said.
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